Forecast Contest
Time Series, Spring 2024
Current overall standings
| Name |
Score |
| Jaci V. |
64.0 |
| Nithi V. |
84.0 |
| Bryan C. |
97.0 |
| Conner C. |
99.0 |
| Anthony K. |
113.5 |
| Pranavi K. |
116.0 |
| Lauren M. |
117.0 |
| Sarah R. |
118.0 |
| Ramez M. |
132.5 |
| Nate B. |
135.0 |
| Connor K. |
136.5 |
| Kaleb Y. |
137.0 |
| Logan M. |
138.0 |
| Yuming F. |
145.0 |
| Stuart R. |
146.0 |
| Mathieu S. |
149.0 |
| Marcus S. |
151.0 |
| Ram R. |
163.5 |
| Gretchen K. |
166.5 |
Standings for Trump votes in NH republican primary
Correct value: 175308 (subject to revision)
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Jaci V. |
150000.0 |
120000.00 |
180000.00 |
25308.0 |
60000 |
3 |
| Sarah R. |
152219.0 |
137296.00 |
167143.00 |
23089.0 |
111497 |
5 |
| Bryan C. |
144000.0 |
112500.00 |
181500.00 |
31308.0 |
69000 |
8 |
| Stuart R. |
145000.0 |
115000.00 |
185000.00 |
30308.0 |
70000 |
8 |
| Conner C. |
145952.0 |
125357.00 |
167143.00 |
29356.0 |
123436 |
9 |
| Kaleb Y. |
147000.0 |
134000.00 |
161000.00 |
28308.0 |
170080 |
9 |
| Pranavi K. |
140000.0 |
135000.00 |
145000.00 |
35308.0 |
313080 |
15 |
| Ram R. |
134250.0 |
130000.00 |
138500.00 |
41058.0 |
376580 |
17 |
| Anthony K. |
117406.0 |
98401.00 |
136411.00 |
57902.0 |
426980 |
20 |
| Gretchen K. |
270000.0 |
100000.00 |
400000.00 |
94692.0 |
300000 |
20 |
| Nithi V. |
119388.0 |
110000.00 |
130000.00 |
55920.0 |
473080 |
20 |
| Connor K. |
99349.0 |
95000.00 |
115000.00 |
75959.0 |
623080 |
24 |
| Nate B. |
110000.0 |
120000.00 |
100000.00 |
65308.0 |
773080 |
24 |
| Lauren M. |
62559.0 |
60135.00 |
64965.00 |
112749.0 |
1108260 |
29 |
| Mathieu S. |
290000.0 |
280000.00 |
300000.00 |
114692.0 |
1066920 |
29 |
| Lebo S. |
35572.2 |
13714.06 |
57430.34 |
139735.8 |
1222493 |
32 |
| Ramez M. |
324658.0 |
305321.00 |
372498.00 |
149350.0 |
1367307 |
34 |
| Yuming F. |
54.0 |
50.00 |
60.00 |
175254.0 |
1752490 |
36 |
| Logan M. |
360638.0 |
360000.00 |
362000.00 |
185330.0 |
1848920 |
38 |
| Marcus S. |
403204.0 |
365660.00 |
411110.00 |
227896.0 |
1948970 |
40 |
Standings for St. Louis High Temperature Feb 2
Correct value: 51.
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Lauren M. |
52 |
49 |
55 |
1 |
6 |
3.5 |
| Pranavi K. |
51 |
46 |
56 |
0 |
10 |
4.5 |
| Jaci V. |
52 |
45 |
55 |
1 |
10 |
6.0 |
| Anthony K. |
54 |
50 |
61 |
3 |
11 |
9.5 |
| Mathieu S. |
56 |
50 |
59 |
5 |
9 |
10.0 |
| Ram R. |
55 |
49 |
60 |
4 |
11 |
11.5 |
| Nithi V. |
55 |
47 |
62 |
4 |
15 |
15.5 |
| Conner C. |
43 |
39 |
51 |
8 |
12 |
18.5 |
| Connor K. |
59 |
50 |
63 |
8 |
13 |
19.5 |
| Gretchen K. |
55 |
38 |
68 |
4 |
30 |
19.5 |
| Kaleb Y. |
58 |
48 |
64 |
7 |
16 |
21.0 |
| Yuming F. |
45 |
35 |
65 |
6 |
30 |
22.5 |
| Ramez M. |
60 |
50 |
65 |
9 |
15 |
23.5 |
| Bryan C. |
60 |
45 |
63 |
9 |
18 |
26.0 |
| Nate B. |
42 |
37 |
48 |
9 |
41 |
29.0 |
| Alex S. |
41 |
38 |
45 |
10 |
67 |
32.0 |
| Marcus S. |
36 |
33 |
44 |
15 |
81 |
35.0 |
| Logan M. |
37 |
35 |
40 |
14 |
115 |
36.0 |
| Stuart R. |
33 |
24 |
42 |
18 |
108 |
38.0 |
| Omari W. |
34 |
26 |
39 |
17 |
133 |
39.0 |
| Sarah R. |
32 |
27 |
37 |
19 |
150 |
42.0 |
Standings for Superbowl point spread
Correct value: 3.
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Kaleb Y. |
3 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
3.0 |
| Conner C. |
3 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
6 |
5.0 |
| Logan M. |
3 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
6 |
5.0 |
| Lauren M. |
5 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
7.5 |
| Ramez M. |
5 |
2 |
10 |
2 |
8 |
10.0 |
| Sarah R. |
7 |
3 |
11 |
4 |
8 |
12.0 |
| Jaci V. |
7 |
3 |
14 |
4 |
11 |
15.0 |
| Nithi V. |
8 |
3 |
13 |
5 |
10 |
17.0 |
| Bryan C. |
8 |
1 |
14 |
5 |
13 |
20.0 |
| Connor K. |
10 |
3 |
14 |
7 |
11 |
23.0 |
| Gretchen K. |
8 |
2 |
24 |
5 |
22 |
24.0 |
| Pranavi K. |
8 |
5 |
11 |
5 |
26 |
25.0 |
| Marcus S. |
10 |
3 |
17 |
7 |
14 |
26.0 |
| Stuart R. |
8 |
6 |
14 |
5 |
38 |
26.0 |
| Yuming F. |
10 |
3 |
17 |
7 |
14 |
26.0 |
| Anthony K. |
14 |
3 |
21 |
11 |
18 |
31.0 |
| Alex S. |
10 |
7 |
14 |
7 |
47 |
31.5 |
| Nate B. |
13 |
11 |
16 |
10 |
85 |
35.0 |
| Mathieu S. |
25 |
24 |
26 |
22 |
212 |
39.0 |
| Ram R. |
24 |
32 |
14 |
21 |
308 |
40.0 |
| Omari W. |
39 |
26 |
45 |
36 |
249 |
41.0 |
Standings for US Total Construction Spending Jan 2024
FRED series TTLCON
Correct value: 149500
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Alex S. |
150000.0 |
147000 |
152000 |
500.0 |
5000 |
2.5 |
| Bryan C. |
151273.0 |
147114 |
155431 |
1773.0 |
8317 |
5.0 |
| Lauren M. |
145000.0 |
141000 |
149000 |
4500.0 |
13000 |
7.0 |
| Anthony K. |
143330.0 |
135850 |
150830 |
6170.0 |
14980 |
9.5 |
| Nithi V. |
150000.0 |
130000 |
160000 |
500.0 |
30000 |
11.5 |
| Yuming F. |
142666.0 |
133333 |
150000 |
6834.0 |
16667 |
13.0 |
| Nate B. |
143330.0 |
135000 |
148000 |
6170.0 |
28000 |
14.5 |
| Jaci V. |
140000.0 |
135000 |
150000 |
9500.0 |
15000 |
17.0 |
| Marcus S. |
141047.0 |
131247 |
149064 |
8453.0 |
22177 |
18.0 |
| Mathieu S. |
140000.0 |
130000 |
150000 |
9500.0 |
20000 |
19.0 |
| Ramez M. |
142452.0 |
139000 |
146452 |
7048.0 |
37932 |
19.0 |
| Logan M. |
141638.0 |
141000 |
143000 |
7862.0 |
67000 |
21.0 |
| Connor K. |
137450.0 |
133000 |
140000 |
12050.0 |
102000 |
27.0 |
| Sarah R. |
140000.0 |
145000 |
135000 |
9500.0 |
155000 |
27.0 |
| Pranavi K. |
163000.0 |
159000 |
167000 |
13500.0 |
103000 |
29.0 |
| Gretchen K. |
195000.0 |
190000 |
300000 |
45500.0 |
515000 |
32.0 |
| Conner C. |
212000.0 |
208000 |
215000 |
62500.0 |
592000 |
34.0 |
| Omari W. |
35000.0 |
29555 |
37500 |
114500.0 |
1127945 |
36.0 |
| Stuart R. |
144.5 |
143 |
145 |
149355.5 |
1493552 |
38.0 |
| Ram R. |
890000.0 |
871523 |
921000 |
740500.0 |
7269707 |
40.0 |
| Kaleb Y. |
2400000.0 |
2200000 |
2800000 |
2250500.0 |
21105000 |
42.0 |
Standings for TSA checkpoint travel numbers March 17
TSA travel numbers
Correct value: 2728408
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Logan M. |
2746782 |
2745000 |
2747000 |
18374 |
167920 |
3.0 |
| Sarah R. |
2700000 |
2500000 |
2900000 |
28408 |
400000 |
6.5 |
| Connor K. |
2699699 |
2400000 |
2800000 |
28709 |
400000 |
8.0 |
| Jaci V. |
2700000 |
2400000 |
3000000 |
28408 |
600000 |
12.0 |
| Marcus S. |
2643087 |
2592743 |
2693432 |
85321 |
450449 |
12.0 |
| Ram R. |
2731015 |
2100000 |
2900000 |
2607 |
800000 |
13.0 |
| Conner C. |
2600000 |
2400000 |
2800000 |
128408 |
400000 |
13.5 |
| Ramez M. |
2612113 |
2310000 |
2813900 |
116295 |
503900 |
16.0 |
| Nithi V. |
2600000 |
2500000 |
2700000 |
128408 |
484080 |
16.5 |
| Bryan C. |
2821470 |
2453082 |
3103358 |
93062 |
650276 |
18.0 |
| Pranavi K. |
3000000 |
2700000 |
3300000 |
271592 |
600000 |
24.5 |
| Stuart R. |
2765755 |
2865755 |
2465755 |
37347 |
4400000 |
25.0 |
| Mathieu S. |
2500000 |
1700000 |
2700000 |
228408 |
1284080 |
27.0 |
| Anthony K. |
2442852 |
2091544 |
2726624 |
285556 |
652920 |
28.0 |
| Alex S. |
2500000 |
2480000 |
2520000 |
228408 |
2124080 |
28.0 |
| Nate B. |
2507777 |
2600000 |
2400000 |
220631 |
3484080 |
29.0 |
| Lauren M. |
2400000 |
2300000 |
2500000 |
328408 |
2484080 |
33.0 |
| Gretchen K. |
2500000 |
2000000 |
300000 |
228408 |
25984080 |
34.0 |
| Yuming F. |
2299999 |
2000000 |
2500000 |
428409 |
2784080 |
36.0 |
| Kaleb Y. |
2350000 |
2100000 |
2400000 |
378408 |
3584080 |
37.0 |
| Omari W. |
90 |
77 |
97 |
2728318 |
27283130 |
42.0 |
Standings for Google Stock Close April 3
Correct value: 154.92.
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Nate B. |
155.00 |
150.00 |
160.00 |
0.08 |
10.00 |
3.5 |
| Nithi V. |
155.00 |
148.00 |
158.00 |
0.08 |
10.00 |
3.5 |
| Jaci V. |
153.00 |
130.00 |
165.00 |
1.92 |
35.00 |
11.0 |
| Stuart R. |
160.00 |
148.00 |
165.00 |
5.08 |
17.00 |
11.0 |
| Yuming F. |
155.00 |
130.00 |
170.00 |
0.08 |
40.00 |
11.5 |
| Anthony K. |
149.00 |
129.80 |
158.60 |
5.92 |
28.80 |
15.5 |
| Omari W. |
144.00 |
142.20 |
156.00 |
10.92 |
13.80 |
17.0 |
| Pranavi K. |
145.00 |
135.00 |
155.00 |
9.92 |
20.00 |
18.0 |
| Conner C. |
150.00 |
120.00 |
180.00 |
4.92 |
60.00 |
19.0 |
| Bryan C. |
146.00 |
127.00 |
165.00 |
8.92 |
38.00 |
20.0 |
| Marcus S. |
149.19 |
108.90 |
162.48 |
5.73 |
53.58 |
20.0 |
| Alex S. |
149.00 |
148.00 |
151.00 |
5.92 |
42.20 |
20.5 |
| Kaleb Y. |
152.59 |
163.59 |
144.32 |
2.33 |
211.97 |
25.0 |
| Mathieu S. |
147.50 |
147.00 |
149.00 |
7.42 |
61.20 |
25.0 |
| Sarah R. |
140.00 |
120.00 |
160.00 |
14.92 |
40.00 |
25.5 |
| Ramez M. |
141.74 |
130.00 |
150.00 |
13.18 |
69.20 |
30.0 |
| Connor K. |
174.00 |
163.00 |
180.00 |
19.08 |
97.80 |
35.0 |
| Logan M. |
137.63 |
136.00 |
140.00 |
17.29 |
153.20 |
35.0 |
| Gretchen K. |
120.50 |
80.00 |
150.00 |
34.42 |
119.20 |
37.0 |
| Lauren M. |
137.26 |
132.26 |
140.26 |
17.66 |
154.60 |
37.0 |
| Ram R. |
110.00 |
90.00 |
115.00 |
44.92 |
424.20 |
42.0 |